A Little Bit of Honesty.

Sid wrote:Evening

it was this very week last series that Caroline bottom two-ed doing a bland Waltz in a bad dress!

Really interesting S id.....................

For me the big threat to this series is perhaps the predictability. At present I don't think I have ever been more confident in predicting the series winner at merely the halfway mark of the series. To me it is a nailed on cert Jay McGuinness will win. Also a trait of this year is that there aren't really any celebs who starting off as a blank canvas and moved into the contenders bracket. Those we'd rate as the true contenders now have looked like being contenders from week one in my opinion. The nearest we may get to that this year is Jamelia.

You may well be right CC, but I'm not convinced that Jay has got it nailed on just yet. He needs to learn how to express emotion through the dance and when he does that, I agree he will probably be the front runner.

You summed up my feelings too CC. One thing I've been missing with all of the contestants is a sense of progression. For a lot of the already-good-ones, they never do a bad dance as such but just have some dances that suit them more than others so one person shines a little more than the rest from week to week (with Jay getting the best response from the audience). Even with Georgia, she's been good from the start but she got decent music, choreography and a good performance slot this week so she stood out for a change. I'm expecting her Chicago-themed Charleston to fare well too. Aside from Jeremy, Anita comes with the least experience and she's impressively putting in a solid performance week after week but so far hasn't stolen the show with a WOW dance. That needs to happen I think or it'll be an inevtable Jay, Peter, Helen, Georgia final - which is fine, I'm sure it'd be a final of high quality, but there'd be no real novice-to-dancer types there.

I think overall I did prefer the unpredictability of last year. We very rarely differ on views S id but I don't think that this year is in the bag by any means - I think we do perhaps have the top six (although K atie and/or Jamelia could yet be wild cards staying out of the DO for a bit at the expense of others) - and there are only 4 places in the final - the timing of dances is crucial now and some of them have still got dodgy dances to go - everyone gets one dance that doesn't suit them, even if it is only in the eyes of the judges - GBP can also turn very fickle once the 'comedy' and 'popular' acts have gone - a week ago we probably wouldn't have thought that K and K would be in the DO. I think A nita has a very good chance of being in the final mix - more so in fact than Helen, Kellie and even P eter.

Of course I will probably have to eat my words come the end of December

CaledonianCraig wrote:For me the big threat to this series is perhaps the predictability. At present I don't think I have ever been more confident in predicting the series winner at merely the halfway mark of the series. To me it is a nailed on cert Jay McGuinness will win. Also a trait of this year is that there aren't really any celebs who starting off as a blank canvas and moved into the contenders bracket. Those we'd rate as the true contenders now have looked like being contenders from week one in my opinion. The nearest we may get to that this year is Jamelia.

Whilst I totally agree in principle, CC, the reality is harder to achieve. The very improbability of the current trend of expecting people like Your Tony Jacklins and Jimmy Tarbucks' etc to enter a competition where they come up against a Louis Smith, or a Carol to go head to head with Georgia etc, highlights how very wrong it all is as anything but a popularity contest. John S argent and Ann W idicombe, Russell Grant, Edwina Curry etc, all show very clearly where the show is at. Best dancers don't always win even at the end, as we've seen and there is a certain element of public cruelty in the "lambs to the slaughter" reality of it all. I'd love a level playing field of total non dancers, but even then there would have to be some level of equality in age etc.The current formula consistently wins the rating wars and that's what it's all about in the end.

TANGOLERO wrote:
Whilst I totally agree in principle, CC, the reality is harder to achieve. The very improbability of the current trend of expecting people like Your Tony Jacklins and Jimmy Tarbucks' etc to enter a competition where they come up against a Louis Smith, or a Carol to go head to head with Georgia etc, highlights how very wrong it all is as anything but a popularity contest. John S argent and Ann W idicombe, Russell Grant, Edwina Curry etc, all show very clearly where the show is at. Best dancers don't always win even at the end, as we've seen and there is a certain element of public cruelty in the "lambs to the slaughter" reality of it all. I'd love a level playing field of total non dancers, but even then there would have to be some level of equality in age etc.The current formula consistently wins the rating wars and that's what it's all about in the end.

True, Mr T. But it feels like a long time since we've had a Denise Lewis, Mark Ramprakash, Jade Johson, Lisa Snowdon, Darren Gough, (dare I say it) Chris Hollins non-dancer-who-went-on-a-j.ourney-type do well. There was Abbey I suppose. That's what seems to be missing and maybe what CC was alluding to more?

mauveangel09 wrote:I think A nita has a very good chance of being in the final mix - more so in fact than Helen, Kellie and even P eter.

Of course I will probably have to eat my words come the end of December

Ha! Would be nice if she did but only if she earned it. Haven't seen Anita produce a final-worthy performance so far...she's close, just need that one dance where she shines.

Sid - any chance you could list who's got what dances left to do? I know you keep a tally in that database of a brain of yours.

As for the dance off, I think it will be a big kick in the pants for K & K, to fall so low in the voting stakes after being so well up on the board. It reminded me a bit of Emma Bunton who I think got high judges marks (often at the top of the leaderboard) but didn't get the public vote. Will Kellie be able to up her game with the heavy Eastender's workload?

I thought Tristan's facial expressions when Jamelia was voted through was brilliant.

B4p wrote:Sid - any chance you could list who's got what dances left to do? I know you keep a tally in that database of a brain of yours.


I thought Tristan's facial expressions when Jamelia was voted through was brilliant.

Yes! Proper, genuine shock and a wry smile.

Heres the list of dances left (confession - I cheated and copy/pasted from someone on DS).

Anita & Gleb - Argentine, Foxtrot, Quickstep, Viennese / Paso, Rumba, Salsa

Carol & Pasha - Argentine, Tango, Waltz / Charleston, Jive, Salsa, Samba

Georgia & Giovanni - Smooth, Argentine, Foxtrot, Viennese / Cha-Cha-Cha, Charleston, Paso

Helen & Aljaz - Smooth, Argentine, Tango, Viennese / Charleston, Jive, Paso

Jamelia & Tristan - Smooth, Argentine, Quickstep, Tango / Paso, Rumba, Samba

Jay & Aliona - Foxtrot, Tango, Viennese / Charleston, Rumba, Salsa, Samba

Jeremy & Karen - Argentine, Foxtrot, Quickstep, Viennese / Paso, Rumba, Samba

Katie & A.nton - Smooth, Argentine, Foxtrot, Waltz / Charleston, Rumba, Samba

Kellie & Kevin - Smooth, Argentine, Quickstep, Viennese / Rumba, Salsa, Samba

Peter & Janette - Smooth, Argentine, Viennese, Waltz / Jive, Salsa, Samba

Helen's got a good run left. All the horrible wiggly Latin n.umbers behind her....dramatic Ballroom dances and Paso left. All about the lines and shapes, should play to her strengths.

Hmmmm.

Well, if Katie and A.nton get Smooth, Foxtrot and Waltz they'll stay in (and may even top the leader board again - A.ton does a lovely Waltz). If they get Samba or Rumba there's a very good chance they're going home. Charleston could go either way, and I just hope that I don't have to witness their AT.

I'm not sure that I agree that Helen's got a smooth run, Sid. She'll ace the Viennese and Smooth, no question and I can see them doing well in Charleston. I'm not convinced that Paso or Tango will suit her - she's better at elegant lines than dramatic lines, and I'm not sure about AT either. In AT you've got to show a real connection (that's where Jay lost a bit for me) and I just don't feel the connection between her and Aljaz at the moment, but maybe that will change.

Anita and Gleb have got a reasonably clear run - if they have a problem I think that it will be with Rumba. I can see Anita wanting to giggle all the time.

If Jay and Aliona have a problem it will be with the Charleston - Jay will need to act and it will really show if he doesn't. However, iirc Charleston was the dance where Louis Smith finally shed his inhibitions, so maybe it will be the same for Jay. Here's hoping, because if he can just do that I think he'll be terrific.

I think that if Kellie and Kevin have problems it will be related to Kellie's Eastenders schedule rather than any specific dance. I thought that what Kevin said about her coming in exhausted after a tough filming schedule and only then getting down to dancing was revealing. We've seen it a few times with current EE actors, they fade towards the middle of the competition as it all catches up with them (Scott Maslen being the classic example) and I've not been able to put my finger on it, but the last couple of weeks there's definitely been something lacking for and now I wonder if it's lack of rehearsal and tiredness. She's just missing that extra something.

Peter may struggle with VW and Waltz unless Janette can sort his shoulders out. I think he'll do the Latin OK and Smooth she'll probably keep him out of hold as much as possible (to L.en's disgust and C.raig's delight no doubt).

I think that Georgia's got the smoothest run, although I wonder how she'll do with Paso. I think Joe Varney will see her through OK though.

As for Jamelia, well it's only a matter of time. I think if she gets Rumba, Samba or Paso that will spell the end for her.

Jeremy and Karen - the dance is irrelevant. They'll go when GBP decides the fun is over and the real competition has started. I hope that we get to see their Samba and Paso though. Not sure I want to see Jeremy doing a Rumba - he'd probably bring in a sheep or something!

Sid wrote:
Helen's got a good run left. All the horrible wiggly Latin n.umbers behind her....dramatic Ballroom dances and Paso left. All about the lines and shapes, should play to her strengths.

My thoughts exactly as I was reading Sid, then I  finished and saw you'd said the same thing!
I think Anita's looking quite safe too, as is team GG
Some of the other contenders have got a much trickier run in on paper, such as Peter with the ballroom, also Jay's looks tricky. All very interesting.

Good morning gang.

Not much to mention about the weekend apart from Carole clearly being out of her depth and it was definitely the right time for her to go.

The stand-out dance for me on Saturday was Jay and Aliona. I can't find anybody here who agrees but for me it definitely smouldered.

We are left with nine from the original field of fifteen and there will be some shock exits in the next couple of weeks. If Jeremy and Katie manage to avoid the dance-off (due to their popularity) then who knows what will happen. Throw into the mix the availabe dances left to each couple and it really is unpredictable. K & K are clearly not popular so must be at risk.

And finally, did anybody else notice how close Anita came to giving Gleb a smacker on the lips at the end of their dance? In fact, it came so naturally that I'd almost be tempted to believe she had done it before.....

fiftynotout wrote:Good morning gang.

The stand-out dance for me on Saturday was Jay and Aliona.  I can't find anybody here who agrees but for me it definitely smouldered.

Yes, you can, Fifty. This was my initial comment:

TANGOLERO wrote:How I would have liked to see Jay and Aliona's Argentine Tango under bright lights. Dark trousers and dark blue lighting meant I had to really peer into the gloom to see what was a fantastic tango. Aliona is a genius in both choreography and teaching as well as being a dazzling dancer. These two are right up at the sharp end. Jay is a very talented lad.

My only complaint on them was the dark lighting, not the dance, which was terrific. I even defended the need to be so pernickety about facial expression. It was an Argentine Tango and he was hardly doing wrong by just keeping a sober expression. Sometimes I get the feeling (isolated, I know) that people are looking for flash in everything instead of purity. As an A.T. it was clean, simple and free from error. The Gotan Project track provided just the right atmosphere and I thoroughly enjoyed the dance.

Count me in too- I said I was swept away by his AT, I thought it was very atmospheric.

Jay's dance was technically very good for what he had to do. I do have to agree with the judges though as his face was expressionless/vague/blank so that is something for him to work on and someone else posted this that he started off robotic like and I'd agree with that. Couple the robotic movement with no expression and it came to be like watching a lifelike android programmed with steps but no emotion. Now please don't take that as if I didn't enjoy the dance as I did (thoroughly).

Excellent news, I really must read the posts more carefully

fiftynotout wrote:K & K are clearly not popular so must be at risk.

Hard to say, fifty. I mean, the last two winners found themselves in mid-series dance-offs! Not that I think for a moment K & K stand a chance of winning but sometimes a dull dance in a drab dress can do for you. It might just have been one of those weeks. The main storyline last week was "Keep Jamelia out the Bottom 2!" and I think that's where voters were focused.

Tina Sparkle wrote:Hmmmm.

Well, if Katie and A.nton get Smooth, Foxtrot and Waltz they'll stay in (and may even top the leader board again - A.ton does a lovely Waltz).  If they get Samba or Rumba there's a very good chance they're going home.  Charleston could go either way, and I just hope that I don't have to witness their AT.

Agree with that T.S, apart from the Argentine Tango. Much depends on Katie for that because An ton can dance tango well enough.There is also a lot depending on A nton's choreography for the Smooth because lifts are not his strongpoint. If the l atin dances come after the rest it probably won't matter by then as Katie will probably be back on her own job. That said, those housewives could rise and chain themselves to taxis outside the studio in protest if they are of a mind to support their hero.

TAXI,

TANGOLERO wrote:
Agree with that T.S, apart from the Argentine Tango. Much depends on Katie for that because An ton can dance tango well enough.There is also a lot depending on A nton's choreography for the Smooth because lifts are not his strongpoint. If the l atin dances come after the rest it probably won't matter by then as Katie will probably be back on her own job. That said, those housewives could rise and chain themselves to taxis outside the studio in protest if they are of a mind to support their hero.

Absolutely agree that An.ton can dance Tango Mr D. - better than well enough. But Argentine Tango is a somewhat different beast. I was looking across YouTube last night and I couldn't find an example of An.ton dancing AT - don't know that he's ever reached far enough in Strictly to do it (since they started including AT). And as you say, lifts are not his strongpoint and they'll need to include a lift or two in AT to keep the judges happy.

Just discovered it's the Rumba this week for Katie and A.nton.

I'm thinking if he's clever, A.nton might give Katie a Rumba with a more classical, balletic feel. Something along the lines of what Sophie & Brendan did - less about undulating hips and more about beautiful lines and flexibility. I think that would play to Katie's strengths and help mask her weaknesses.

Sid wrote:Just discovered it's the Rumba this week for Katie and A.nton.

I'm thinking if he's clever, A.nton might give Katie a Rumba with a more classical, balletic feel. Something along the lines of what Sophie & Brendan did - less about undulating hips and more about beautiful lines and flexibility. I think that would play to Katie's strengths and help mask her weaknesses.

Good points Sid, will work fine for C raig, but also keeping in mind L en's need for basics, get some in there. First priority is a clean, error free dance that flows but has a rumba feel to it. Keep a grip of Katie's knicker elastic and don't have her doing a Titanic and flying off the prow.

Tina - I think all your comments from your long post are spot on the mark - (too much to put in quote)

CC - I concur with your post about Jay and the Argentine Tango - (facial expressions etc) although I too enjoyed the routine and the music itself.

Sorry to hear that K atie and A nton have got rhumba this weekend as I would really like her to at least get to Blackpool. I agree that A nton could play to her elegance in the routine if he is clever enough - but I don't think GBP particularly vote highly for a rhumba unless it is outstanding. Pity that they don't have something like the waltz or smooth this week which would boost her confidence. Re: A nton and the Argentine Tango - I'm not sure that he has ever danced it on SCD - it was always done in the semis then when they changed that a few years ago he wasn't given it, probably because he didn't have a partner who could cope with it.

S id - forgot to say - thank you for posting up the dances - really interesting stuff

No probs mauve

TANGOLERO wrote: First priority is a clean, error free dance that flows but has a rumba feel to it. Keep a grip of Katie's knicker elastic and don't have her doing a Titanic and flying off the prow.

Indeed!

Yes you're right Mr T, need to keep L.en happy as well with basic recognisable Rumba steps...it'll be interesting to see what sort of routine A.nton comes up with and how well Katie copes with this dance. After 3 consecutive tricky weeks, I imagine her confidence has taken quite a knock. Really want her to have a good week - not just from the perspective of the competition, but for herself.

mauve - It might not be a bad week for them to Rumba. Even if doesn't go brilliantly, I'd say there are still enough couples still in that K&A could avoid the bottom two. If the Rumba came later, and went badly, that might be more touch-and-go. It also means they'll most like have Ballroom for Blackpool